U.S. Treasurys: recession concerns take hold
U.S. Treasurys slid on Monday as fears about a recession grew after a series of key economic data was released last week.
At 2:41 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over eight basis points to 3.7099%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.7315% after falling by around 14 basis points.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.
On Friday, July’s nonfarm payrolls report showed that job growth for the month totaled just 114,000, which was below the 185,000 Dow Jones estimate as well as June’s revised figure of 179,000. The jobs report also showed that the employment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021.
The data suggested an easing of the labor market, which prompted concerns about a recession. That came after the Fed earlier in the week left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a September rate cut. But many investors have since questioned whether the central bank should have moved to cut rates already to ward off an economic downturn.
Markets are now pricing in an increasingly high chance of a 50 basis point rate cut when the Fed meets in September, CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed.
In the week ahead, investors will be watching out for comments from Fed officials, scanning them for clues about the economic and monetary policy outlook. ISM’s Services PMI, which tracks the performance of services companies, is also due Monday and is expected to rise from June’s 48.8 reading to 50.9 in July.
