Inflation reports from this week should allow the Fed to stay on track with rate cuts
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Investors who fear stubborn inflation, if not an outright rebound, got a bit of a salve on Friday morning. Wholesale prices showed no change month over month for September, coming in below expectations. The producer price index report may help offset some of the slight concerns about Thursday’s consumer price index report, which was a bit hotter than expected. The details within the reports are another reason to stay calm, David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura Securities, said on ” Squawk Box .” “The key thing for the Fed is their preferred measure of inflation, core PCE. And when you actually look at the components of yesterday’s print and just looking over today’s PPI print that go into that core PCE, it actually looks pretty good,” Seif said. The personal consumption expenditures price index for September will be released on Oct. 31. Traders appeared to be slightly more confident in the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path after Friday’s report. The CME FedWatch tool showed an 88% implied probability of a 0.25 percentage point cut at the November meeting. That number had dipped to 83% on Thursday. “We think the Fed is really still on track to cut 25 [basis points] at each of the next two meetings,” Seif added. A solid start to the third-quarter earnings season could be another boost to investor sentiment. On Friday morning, JPMorgan Chase , Wells Fargo and BNY Mellon all beat their bottom-line estimates, according to LSEG.
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