Politics

US Economy Actually Lost 2.5 Million Jobs in January



The mainstream media cheered the news that the U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs last month. Sadly, that just isn’t true. According to reports and the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the US economy actually lost 2.5 million jobs in January.

Via Rich Dvorak: “The Not Seasonally Adjusted print for monthly change in Nonfarm Payrolls was -2.5 million jobs. That means the headline +517K employment gain reported in January was driven entirely by a +3 million seasonal adjustment.”

US Economy Actually Lost 2.5 Million Jobs in January

More reaction.

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This is what actually happened.

Zero Hedge reported:

And with the unemployment rate plunging to 3.4% – matching the lowest in 54 years – from 3.6%, while the payrolls report showing the addition of 517K jobs the highest since July, and far above the highest forecast – in fact, a record 9-sigma beat to median consensus, the shock was merited as today’s report was indeed a blowout.

But why: what happened that everyone was so wrong?

A couple of things. First, as we warned yesterday, today the BLS unveiled a slew of data revisions, which include updating the population controls – which would have the mechanical effect of boosting the labor force – and updating seasonal factors, which further distorted the January nonfarm payroll number (this is key as readers will read shortly). This is indeed what happened:





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